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GoalStatsHub

Football Prediction Guides

Plain-English guides to the numbers behind football predictions: how models work, odds and probability, expected goals, correct scores, goals, corners and cards.

Every figure on GoalStatsHub is a probability. These guides explain where the numbers come from, how to read each market and how to judge whether a prediction, ours or anyone else’s, is any good. Each one uses worked examples you can check yourself.

  • How Football Prediction Models Work

    A step-by-step worked example of how a statistical model turns team records into expected goals, a scoreline grid and probabilities for every market. (7 min read)

  • Betting Odds vs Probability: How to Compare Them

    How to convert decimal, fractional and American odds into probabilities, remove the bookmaker margin and compare the result with a model, with worked examples. (6 min read)

  • How to Read a Correct Score Matrix

    What the correct score grid shows, why the most likely score happens only about one time in eight, and how to read result, goals and handicap markets straight off the grid. (5 min read)

  • Expected Goals (xG) Explained

    The difference between shot-based xG measured after a match and the pre-match expected goals a prediction model uses, and how to read the figures on a match page. (6 min read)

  • Both Teams to Score vs Over/Under Goals

    Why both teams to score and over 2.5 goals behave differently, how the 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5 ladder works, and what to check on a match page before reading either market. (6 min read)

  • Why Draws Are So Hard to Predict

    About a quarter of football matches end level, yet the draw is almost never the most likely outcome. The maths behind it, and how to read draw probabilities sensibly. (5 min read)

  • Corners and Cards Predictions Explained

    How expected corners, yellow cards and booking points are estimated, why these markets are less predictable than goals, and how much the referee matters. (6 min read)

  • How to Judge Football Predictions

    Sample size, hit rate versus odds, calibration and the Brier score: how to tell whether a tipster or prediction model is actually any good, with worked numbers. (7 min read)

For a short overview of every market, see how our predictions work.