Predicting Cup Ties and Two-Legged Matches

League matches are simple to predict in one sense: 90 minutes, three possible results, done. Cup football adds extra time, penalties, two-legged ties and teams from different leagues meeting for the first time. This guide covers what changes, what a match prediction does and doesn’t tell you about a knockout tie, and how to read cup figures on our pages.

Predictions cover 90 minutes

Match probabilities, ours included, are for the result after 90 minutes plus added time. Extra time and penalties are not part of the 1X2. So in a knockout match, the draw figure is really the chance that the tie goes beyond normal time, not the chance that it ends level. Our results reviews settle cup matches on the 90-minute score for the same reason.

If you want the chance that a team goes through in a one-off match, you need to share out the draw: some of it goes to each side through extra time and penalties. Penalty shoot-outs are close to a coin flip, so a rough estimate is to split the draw evenly, or slightly in favour of the stronger side if it is clearly better.

Two-legged ties

In a two-legged tie, what matters is the aggregate score across both games. Since the 2021-22 season, UEFA competitions no longer use the away goals rule: a level aggregate goes to extra time and penalties at the end of the second leg.

Here is a worked example. Team A is at home first and expected to score 1.6 against 1.0. In the return leg, away from home, it is expected to score 1.3 against 1.2. Leg by leg:

The aggregate is not the average of the two legs. Combining both games’ goals makes a level aggregate much less likely than a draw in either single match, and gives the stronger side more room to win the tie overall. Splitting the 17.4% through extra time and penalties, Team A goes through a little over 60% of the time.

Second legs are different matches

Pre-match models usually treat each leg as a separate game, but the second leg is played with the first leg’s score known. A team defending a three-goal lead will play very differently from one that needs a goal. That can change the scoring rate in ways a pre-match model only partly captures:

• a big first-leg lead often leads to a cautious, low-scoring second leg;
• a team that needs goals takes risks, which raises the chance of goals at both ends late in the game;
• a tie that is already decided may see rotated line-ups.

Teams from different leagues

Cup competitions bring together sides that rarely or never meet. To compare them, a model has to judge how strong one league is against another, using past results between clubs from those leagues. Those estimates carry more uncertainty than comparisons within a league, which is one reason confidence is often lower on European and domestic cup fixtures, especially early rounds where lower-league sides appear.

Squad rotation adds to that. Clubs often rest players in early cup rounds, and team news only arrives about an hour before kick-off, after most predictions are published.

Reading cup predictions

• Read the draw figure as the chance of extra time in a knockout game.
• For a second leg, check the first-leg score before reading the 1X2.
• Give lower-confidence figures for cross-league matches a wider margin of error.

18+. These figures are information, not betting advice. Please read our responsible gambling page.