Results vs predictions, 26 Oct 2026: favourites won 9 of 15
How our pre-match predictions held up on Monday, 26 October 2026: 9 of 15 favourites won, with goals, both teams to score and suggested bets settled against the final scores. Biggest surprise: Nea Salamis 0 - 0 Pafos, rated at 14%.
By Adam from Poland · · Compiled automatically from our published predictions and the final scores
The day in numbers
15 matches with our own pre-match predictions finished on Monday, 26 October 2026, across 11 competitions in 11 countries.
The outcome our model rated most likely came in 9 times out of 15 (60%). On average it gave those picks 55%, so they landed roughly what those probabilities implied. On a sample this small a few results either way move the rate a lot, so read it as one day, not a trend.
Biggest surprises
2 results came in at under 20% by our numbers. Outcomes rated that low should still happen roughly one time in five or fewer, so a handful on a busy day is expected.
- 1. Division (Cyprus): Nea Salamis 0 - 0 Pafos. The model rated a draw at 14% and had a win for Pafos as its favourite at 79%.
- Süper Lig (Turkey): Galatasaray 2 - 1 Fenerbahce. The model rated a win for Galatasaray at 18% and had a win for Fenerbahce as its favourite at 59%.
Calls that landed
3 favourites rated at 60% or more won, and 2 final scores were among the three exact scores we listed.
- Süper Lig (Turkey): Besiktas 2 - 0 Basaksehir. The model rated a win for Besiktas at 84%.
- Süper Lig (Turkey): Rizespor 3 - 4 Trabzonspor. The model rated a win for Trabzonspor at 74%.
- La Liga (Spain): Sevilla 2 - 0 Osasuna. The model rated a win for Sevilla at 60%.
- First League (Bulgaria): Lok. Plovdiv 0 - 0 Slavia Sofia was our most likely exact score, at 31.1%.
- Süper Lig (Turkey): Besiktas 2 - 0 Basaksehir was our second most likely exact score, at 11%.
Goals
There were 46 goals in 15 matches, 3.1 per game.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 matches (47%), against an average model probability of 50%.
Both teams scored in 7 (47%), against an average model probability of 48%.
The highest-scoring game was Rizespor 3 - 4 Trabzonspor in the Süper Lig (Turkey); the model had over 2.5 goals there at 40%.
Suggested bets
20 of the 32 suggested bets we published for these matches landed (63%). They include results, double chances, goal lines and combinations of the two, so the rate mixes very different prices; it is a record, not a profit figure.
By competition
| Competition | Matches | Favourites won | Goals per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Süper Lig (Turkey) | 3 | 2 of 3 | 4.0 |
| 1. Division (Cyprus) | 2 | 0 of 2 | 1.0 |
| First League (Bulgaria) | 2 | 2 of 2 | 1.0 |
All results
Pre-match probabilities for a home win, draw and away win, with the outcome the model rated most likely in bold.
| Match | Score | Home / Draw / Away | Favourite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lok. Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia First League (Bulgaria) | 0 - 0 | 17% / 42% / 41% | Draw ✓ (landed) |
| Transinvest 2 vs Siauliai 2 1 Lyga (Lithuania) | 3 - 2 | 51% / 22% / 27% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| Besiktas vs Basaksehir Süper Lig (Turkey) | 2 - 0 | 84% / 11% / 5% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| Rizespor vs Trabzonspor Süper Lig (Turkey) | 3 - 4 | 6% / 20% / 74% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| Nea Salamis vs Pafos 1. Division (Cyprus) | 0 - 0 | 7% / 14% / 79% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split HNL (Croatia) | 2 - 2 | 27% / 23% / 50% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| AEK Larnaca vs Omonia 1. Division (Cyprus) | 2 - 0 | 20% / 29% / 51% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets First League (Bulgaria) | 2 - 0 | 46% / 24% / 30% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| Maccabi Haifa vs H. Beer Sheva Ligat Ha'al (Israel) | 2 - 5 | 33% / 25% / 42% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe vs Univ. Craiova Liga I (Romania) | 0 - 5 | 23% / 35% / 42% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| FC Copenhagen vs Odense Superliga (Denmark) | 1 - 1 | 63% / 26% / 11% | Home ✗ (missed) |
| Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce Süper Lig (Turkey) | 2 - 1 | 18% / 23% / 59% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Santa Clara vs Benfica Primeira Liga (Portugal) | 1 - 2 | 28% / 30% / 42% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| PSG vs Lyon Ligue 1 (France) | 2 - 0 | 29% / 30% / 41% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Sevilla vs Osasuna La Liga (Spain) | 2 - 0 | 60% / 19% / 21% | Home ✓ (landed) |
About these reviews
Every probability above is the prediction our match pages showed before kick-off; predictions stay up after the final whistle, hits and misses alike. Results are settled on the score after 90 minutes. Only matches with our own model's predictions are included; estimates from outside providers are left out. To read the numbers, see how to judge football predictions and how our predictions work.
18+. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice. Please read our responsible gambling page.