Results vs predictions, 29 Oct 2026: favourites won 3 of 10
How our pre-match predictions held up on Thursday, 29 October 2026: 3 of 10 favourites won, with goals, both teams to score and suggested bets settled against the final scores. Biggest surprise: Sutjeska 2 - 2 Jezero, rated at 9%.
By Adam from Poland · · Compiled automatically from our published predictions and the final scores
The day in numbers
10 matches with our own pre-match predictions finished on Thursday, 29 October 2026, across 5 competitions in 5 countries.
The outcome our model rated most likely came in 3 times out of 10 (30%). On average it gave those picks 51%, so they landed less often than those probabilities implied. On a sample this small a few results either way move the rate a lot, so read it as one day, not a trend.
Biggest surprises
One result came in at under 20% by our numbers. Outcomes rated that low should still happen roughly one time in five or fewer, so a handful on a busy day is expected.
- First League (Montenegro): Sutjeska 2 - 2 Jezero. The model rated a draw at 9% and had a win for Sutjeska as its favourite at 87%.
Calls that landed
5 final scores were among the three exact scores we listed.
- 1. SNL (Slovenia): Grosuplje 0 - 0 Bravo was our third most likely exact score, at 11.9%.
- Veikkausliiga - Championship Group (Finland): KuPS 1 - 1 Gnistan was our most likely exact score, at 13.1%.
- Allsvenskan (Sweden): Hammarby 2 - 0 Sirius was our third most likely exact score, at 9.7%.
- Allsvenskan (Sweden): Kalmar 0 - 1 GAIS was our second most likely exact score, at 9.3%.
- Allsvenskan (Sweden): Orgryte 1 - 2 Mjallby was our third most likely exact score, at 7.6%.
Goals
There were 30 goals in 10 matches, 3.0 per game.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 matches (50%), against an average model probability of 54%.
Both teams scored in 6 (60%), against an average model probability of 54%.
The highest-scoring game was Inter Turku 2 - 4 HJK in the Veikkausliiga - Championship Group (Finland); the model had over 2.5 goals there at 24%.
Suggested bets
14 of the 21 suggested bets we published for these matches landed (67%). They include results, double chances, goal lines and combinations of the two, so the rate mixes very different prices; it is a record, not a profit figure.
By competition
| Competition | Matches | Favourites won | Goals per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Allsvenskan (Sweden) | 3 | 2 of 3 | 2.0 |
| First League (Montenegro) | 2 | 0 of 2 | 3.0 |
| Serie A (Italy) | 2 | 1 of 2 | 5.0 |
| Veikkausliiga - Championship Group (Finland) | 2 | 0 of 2 | 4.0 |
All results
Pre-match probabilities for a home win, draw and away win, with the outcome the model rated most likely in bold.
| Match | Score | Home / Draw / Away | Favourite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sutjeska vs Jezero First League (Montenegro) | 2 - 2 | 87% / 9% / 4% | Home ✗ (missed) |
| Decic vs Otrant First League (Montenegro) | 2 - 0 | 24% / 29% / 47% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Inter Turku vs HJK Veikkausliiga - Championship Group (Finland) | 2 - 4 | 32% / 36% / 32% | Draw ✗ (missed) |
| Grosuplje vs Bravo 1. SNL (Slovenia) | 0 - 0 | 32% / 31% / 37% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| KuPS vs Gnistan Veikkausliiga - Championship Group (Finland) | 1 - 1 | 43% / 27% / 30% | Home ✗ (missed) |
| Frosinone vs Lecce Serie A (Italy) | 5 - 1 | 57% / 23% / 20% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| Hammarby vs Sirius Allsvenskan (Sweden) | 2 - 0 | 58% / 23% / 19% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| Kalmar vs GAIS Allsvenskan (Sweden) | 0 - 1 | 31% / 27% / 42% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| Orgryte vs Mjallby Allsvenskan (Sweden) | 1 - 2 | 41% / 22% / 37% | Home ✗ (missed) |
| Fiorentina vs Atalanta Serie A (Italy) | 2 - 2 | 21% / 21% / 58% | Away ✗ (missed) |
About these reviews
Every probability above is the prediction our match pages showed before kick-off; predictions stay up after the final whistle, hits and misses alike. Results are settled on the score after 90 minutes. Only matches with our own model's predictions are included; estimates from outside providers are left out. To read the numbers, see how to judge football predictions and how our predictions work.
18+. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice. Please read our responsible gambling page.