Results vs predictions, 1 Nov 2026: favourites won 60 of 101

The day in numbers

101 matches with our own pre-match predictions finished on Sunday, 1 November 2026, across 35 competitions in 33 countries.

The outcome our model rated most likely came in 60 times out of 101 (59%). On average it gave those picks 60%, so they landed roughly what those probabilities implied.

Biggest surprises

9 results came in at under 20% by our numbers. Outcomes rated that low should still happen roughly one time in five or fewer, so a handful on a busy day is expected.

• Super League 1 (Greece): Levadiakos 3 - 0 Aris. The model rated a win for Levadiakos at 4% and had a win for Aris as its favourite at 69%.
• Premiership (Scotland): Falkirk 2 - 0 Celtic. The model rated a win for Falkirk at 8% and had a win for Celtic as its favourite at 74%.
• Super League (Switzerland): Young Boys 3 - 5 Zurich. The model rated a win for Zurich at 11% and had a win for Young Boys as its favourite at 77%.
• First Division A (Belgium): Lommel SK 2 - 0 Gent. The model rated a win for Lommel SK at 11% and had a win for Gent as its favourite at 54%.
• First Division A (Belgium): St. Truiden 1 - 2 Leuven. The model rated a win for Leuven at 14% and had a win for St. Truiden as its favourite at 63%.

Calls that landed

39 favourites rated at 60% or more won, and 28 final scores were among the three exact scores we listed.

• Süper Lig (Turkey): Amedspor 5 - 1 Eyupspor. The model rated a win for Amedspor at 96%.
• Toppserien - Regular season (Norway): LSK Kvinner W 1 - 4 Brann W. The model rated a win for Brann W at 96%.
• Bundesliga (Austria): Salzburg 5 - 1 A. Lustenau. The model rated a win for Salzburg at 95%.
• Damallsvenskan (Sweden): Uppsala W 0 - 7 Hammarby W. The model rated a win for Hammarby W at 95%.
• Liga I (Romania): Univ. Craiova 2 - 1 FC Botosani. The model rated a win for Univ. Craiova at 93%.
• Meistriliiga (Estonia): Kalju 1 - 0 Kuressaare was our most likely exact score, at 13.1%.
• Serie A (Italy): Como 1 - 0 Venezia was our second most likely exact score, at 16.4%.
• Meistriliiga (Estonia): Flora 2 - 0 Narva was our second most likely exact score, at 11.3%.
• Allsvenskan (Sweden): Malmo FF 1 - 2 Hammarby was our second most likely exact score, at 9.3%.
• Liga I (Romania): Otelul 1 - 1 Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe was our third most likely exact score, at 11.7%.
• Super Liga (Serbia): IMT Novi Beograd 0 - 0 Cukaricki was our second most likely exact score, at 15.3%.
• Süper Lig (Turkey): Trabzonspor 2 - 0 Gaziantep was our second most likely exact score, at 13.4%.
• Bundesliga (Austria): Wolfsberger AC 1 - 1 Sturm Graz was our third most likely exact score, at 11.4%.
• HNL (Croatia): Rijeka 1 - 1 Varazdin was our most likely exact score, at 11.4%.
• Super Liga (Moldova): Milsami 1 - 0 Dacia Buiucani was our third most likely exact score, at 12.4%.
• 1. liga (Slovakia): Ruzomberok 1 - 0 Skalica was our second most likely exact score, at 10.2%.
• Bundesliga (Germany): Union Berlin 1 - 1 FC Koln was our most likely exact score, at 14.2%.
• Super Liga (Serbia): Radnicki 1923 2 - 0 Novi Pazar was our third most likely exact score, at 12.3%.
• NB I (Hungary): Ferencvaros 2 - 0 Paks was our second most likely exact score, at 9.6%.
• Primeira Liga (Portugal): Arouca 1 - 0 Nacional was our third most likely exact score, at 11.3%.
• Eliteserien (Norway): Start 0 - 1 Lillestrom was our most likely exact score, at 15.4%.
• Super Liga (Serbia): Partizan 3 - 0 Zemun was our third most likely exact score, at 9.6%.
• Bundesliga (Austria): Austria Vienna 0 - 2 SK Rapid was our most likely exact score, at 13.7%.
• Ligue 1 (France): Lyon 2 - 0 Angers was our most likely exact score, at 12.9%.
• Premier League (England): Liverpool 0 - 1 Arsenal was our second most likely exact score, at 19.6%.
• 1 Lyga (Lithuania): Hegelmann Litauen 2 1 - 1 BFA Vilnius was our second most likely exact score, at 8.4%.
• Superliga (Denmark): Brondby 2 - 0 Aarhus was our third most likely exact score, at 7.5%.
• Czech Liga (Czech Republic): Bohemians 0 - 0 Sparta Prague was our most likely exact score, at 21.4%.
• NB I (Hungary): Ujpest 2 - 1 Nyiregyhaza was our third most likely exact score, at 8.5%.
• La Liga (Spain): Elche 0 - 1 Valencia was our second most likely exact score, at 8.9%.
• Primeira Liga (Portugal): Maritimo 0 - 2 Santa Clara was our second most likely exact score, at 17.7%.
• Liga I (Romania): Dinamo Bucuresti 2 - 0 UTA Arad was our third most likely exact score, at 11.4%.
• La Liga (Spain): Ath Bilbao 2 - 1 Real Sociedad was our most likely exact score, at 9.5%.

Goals

There were 315 goals in 101 matches, 3.1 per game.

Over 2.5 goals landed in 58 matches (57%), against an average model probability of 54%.

Both teams scored in 48 (48%), against an average model probability of 47%.

The highest-scoring game was Excelsior 0 - 9 Twente in the Eredivisie (Netherlands); the model had over 2.5 goals there at 54%.

Suggested bets

157 of the 225 suggested bets we published for these matches landed (70%). They include results, double chances, goal lines and combinations of the two, so the rate mixes very different prices; it is a record, not a profit figure.

By competition

All results

Pre-match probabilities for a home win, draw and away win, with the outcome the model rated most likely in bold.

About these reviews

Every probability above is the prediction our match pages showed before kick-off; predictions stay up after the final whistle, hits and misses alike. Results are settled on the score after 90 minutes. Only matches with our own model's predictions are included; estimates from outside providers are left out. To read the numbers, see how to judge football predictions and how our predictions work.

18+. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice. Please read our responsible gambling page.