Results vs predictions, 30 Oct 2026: favourites won 15 of 32
How our pre-match predictions held up on Friday, 30 October 2026: 15 of 32 favourites won, with goals, both teams to score and suggested bets settled against the final scores. Biggest surprise: Karmiotissa 1 - 0 Ol. Nicosia, rated at 5%.
By Adam from Poland · · Compiled automatically from our published predictions and the final scores
The day in numbers
32 matches with our own pre-match predictions finished on Friday, 30 October 2026, across 19 competitions in 19 countries.
The outcome our model rated most likely came in 15 times out of 32 (47%). On average it gave those picks 55%, so they landed roughly what those probabilities implied.
Biggest surprises
2 results came in at under 20% by our numbers. Outcomes rated that low should still happen roughly one time in five or fewer, so a handful on a busy day is expected.
- 1. Division (Cyprus): Karmiotissa 1 - 0 Ol. Nicosia. The model rated a win for Karmiotissa at 5% and had a win for Ol. Nicosia as its favourite at 80%.
- Liga Leumit (Israel): H. Akko 2 - 2 H. Ironi Rishon. The model rated a draw at 13% and had a win for H. Ironi Rishon as its favourite at 85%.
Calls that landed
7 favourites rated at 60% or more won, and 9 final scores were among the three exact scores we listed.
- Primeira Liga (Portugal): Casa Pia 0 - 2 Sporting CP. The model rated a win for Sporting CP at 95%.
- Premier League (Ukraine): Shakhtar Donetsk 2 - 0 Obolon. The model rated a win for Shakhtar Donetsk at 91%.
- Liga I (Romania): FC Rapid Bucuresti 2 - 0 Csikszereda M. Ciuc. The model rated a win for FC Rapid Bucuresti at 81%.
- First League (Bulgaria): CSKA 1948 Sofia 6 - 1 Spartak Varna. The model rated a win for CSKA 1948 Sofia at 80%.
- 1 Lyga (Lithuania): Ekranas 1 - 2 Tauras Taurage. The model rated a win for Tauras Taurage at 76%.
- Liga Leumit (Israel): Hapoel Afula 1 - 0 Kiryat Gat was our second most likely exact score, at 16.4%.
- Liga Leumit (Israel): Maccabi Bnei Raina 1 - 1 M. Herzliya was our third most likely exact score, at 14.3%.
- Premier League (Belarus): Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1 - 0 BATE was our second most likely exact score, at 20.7%.
- 1 Lyga (Lithuania): Ekranas 1 - 2 Tauras Taurage was our most likely exact score, at 8.4%.
- 1 Lyga (Lithuania): BE1 NFA 1 - 1 Babrungas was our second most likely exact score, at 13.8%.
- Premier League (Ukraine): Shakhtar Donetsk 2 - 0 Obolon was our most likely exact score, at 20.4%.
- Ekstraklasa (Poland): Cracovia 1 - 2 Motor Lublin was our third most likely exact score, at 7.7%.
- Liga I (Romania): FC Rapid Bucuresti 2 - 0 Csikszereda M. Ciuc was our most likely exact score, at 17.7%.
- Ligue 1 (France): Lille 1 - 0 Lens was our second most likely exact score, at 12%.
Goals
There were 108 goals in 32 matches, 3.4 per game.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 18 matches (56%), against an average model probability of 49%.
Both teams scored in 18 (56%), against an average model probability of 46%.
The highest-scoring game was CSKA 1948 Sofia 6 - 1 Spartak Varna in the First League (Bulgaria); the model had over 2.5 goals there at 74%.
Suggested bets
42 of the 71 suggested bets we published for these matches landed (59%). They include results, double chances, goal lines and combinations of the two, so the rate mixes very different prices; it is a record, not a profit figure.
By competition
| Competition | Matches | Favourites won | Goals per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier Division (Republic of Ireland) | 5 | 0 of 5 | 4.0 |
| Liga Leumit (Israel) | 4 | 1 of 4 | 3.0 |
| 1 Lyga (Lithuania) | 3 | 1 of 3 | 2.3 |
| Ligue 1 (France) | 3 | 3 of 3 | 4.7 |
| Ekstraklasa (Poland) | 2 | 0 of 2 | 1.5 |
| First League (Bulgaria) | 2 | 2 of 2 | 7.0 |
All results
Pre-match probabilities for a home win, draw and away win, with the outcome the model rated most likely in bold.
| Match | Score | Home / Draw / Away | Favourite |
|---|---|---|---|
| H. Akko vs H. Ironi Rishon Liga Leumit (Israel) | 2 - 2 | 2% / 13% / 85% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Hapoel Afula vs Kiryat Gat Liga Leumit (Israel) | 1 - 0 | 40% / 34% / 26% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| Maccabi Bnei Raina vs M. Herzliya Liga Leumit (Israel) | 1 - 1 | 30% / 33% / 37% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| M. Nazareth vs MS Kafr Qasim Liga Leumit (Israel) | 3 - 2 | 22% / 34% / 44% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs BATE Premier League (Belarus) | 1 - 0 | 37% / 41% / 22% | Draw ✗ (missed) |
| Ekranas vs Tauras Taurage 1 Lyga (Lithuania) | 1 - 2 | 10% / 14% / 76% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Spartak Varna First League (Bulgaria) | 6 - 1 | 80% / 13% / 7% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| BE1 NFA vs Babrungas 1 Lyga (Lithuania) | 1 - 1 | 24% / 31% / 45% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon Premier League (Ukraine) | 2 - 0 | 91% / 8% / 1% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| Kauno Zalgiris 2 vs Neptunas 1 Lyga (Lithuania) | 2 - 0 | 24% / 32% / 44% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Cracovia vs Motor Lublin Ekstraklasa (Poland) | 1 - 2 | 43% / 24% / 33% | Home ✗ (missed) |
| Konyaspor vs Galatasaray Süper Lig (Turkey) | 0 - 4 | 23% / 34% / 43% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 HNL (Croatia) | 0 - 2 | 30% / 21% / 49% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| Karmiotissa vs Ol. Nicosia 1. Division (Cyprus) | 1 - 0 | 5% / 15% / 80% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Lok. Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv First League (Bulgaria) | 2 - 5 | 22% / 23% / 55% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| Bodo/Glimt vs Viking Eliteserien (Norway) | 3 - 2 | 49% / 31% / 20% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| Lyngby vs Randers FC Superliga (Denmark) | 2 - 1 | 31% / 28% / 41% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Le Havre vs PSG Ligue 1 (France) | 1 - 5 | 8% / 17% / 75% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| Nice vs Rennes Ligue 1 (France) | 5 - 2 | 45% / 25% / 30% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| FC Rapid Bucuresti vs Csikszereda M. Ciuc Liga I (Romania) | 2 - 0 | 81% / 15% / 4% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| Grazer AK vs Hartberg Bundesliga (Austria) | 0 - 4 | 29% / 29% / 42% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Ekstraklasa (Poland) | 0 - 0 | 28% / 27% / 45% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Elversberg vs Mainz Bundesliga (Germany) | 4 - 1 | 20% / 16% / 64% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Drogheda vs Galway Premier Division (Republic of Ireland) | 2 - 0 | 34% / 29% / 37% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers Premier Division (Republic of Ireland) | 3 - 1 | 28% / 26% / 46% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Shelbourne vs Waterford Premier Division (Republic of Ireland) | 2 - 3 | 45% / 22% / 33% | Home ✗ (missed) |
| Sligo Rovers vs Derry City Premier Division (Republic of Ireland) | 2 - 2 | 24% / 29% / 47% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| St. Patricks vs Bohemians Premier Division (Republic of Ireland) | 2 - 3 | 48% / 27% / 25% | Home ✗ (missed) |
| Waregem vs Club Brugge KV First Division A (Belgium) | 2 - 4 | 11% / 24% / 65% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| Villarreal vs Espanyol La Liga (Spain) | 0 - 1 | 41% / 28% / 31% | Home ✗ (missed) |
| Lille vs Lens Ligue 1 (France) | 1 - 0 | 51% / 27% / 22% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Primeira Liga (Portugal) | 0 - 2 | 1% / 4% / 95% | Away ✓ (landed) |
About these reviews
Every probability above is the prediction our match pages showed before kick-off; predictions stay up after the final whistle, hits and misses alike. Results are settled on the score after 90 minutes. Only matches with our own model's predictions are included; estimates from outside providers are left out. To read the numbers, see how to judge football predictions and how our predictions work.
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