Results vs predictions, 31 Oct 2026: favourites won 66 of 127

The day in numbers

127 matches with our own pre-match predictions finished on Saturday, 31 October 2026, across 36 competitions in 35 countries.

The outcome our model rated most likely came in 66 times out of 127 (52%). On average it gave those picks 59%, so they landed roughly what those probabilities implied.

Biggest surprises

16 results came in at under 20% by our numbers. Outcomes rated that low should still happen roughly one time in five or fewer, so a handful on a busy day is expected.

• 1st League - RS (Bosnia and Herzegovina): Posusje 0 - 1 Jedinstvo Bihac. The model rated a win for Jedinstvo Bihac at 4% and had a win for Posusje as its favourite at 79%.
• 1st League - RS (Bosnia and Herzegovina): Drina Zvornik 3 - 3 Romanija Pale. The model rated a draw at 7% and had a win for Drina Zvornik as its favourite at 91%.
• Bundesliga (Germany): Bayer Leverkusen 2 - 4 Stuttgart. The model rated a win for Stuttgart at 8% and had a win for Bayer Leverkusen as its favourite at 77%.
• National Division (Luxembourg): Rumelange 2 - 1 Racing Luxembourg. The model rated a win for Rumelange at 8% and had a win for Racing Luxembourg as its favourite at 78%.
• Premier League (Russia): Rodina Moscow 2 - 1 Krasnodar. The model rated a win for Rodina Moscow at 9% and had a win for Krasnodar as its favourite at 78%.

Calls that landed

36 favourites rated at 60% or more won, and 27 final scores were among the three exact scores we listed.

• 1st League - RS (Bosnia and Herzegovina): Laktasi 5 - 1 Zvijezda 09. The model rated a win for Laktasi at 94%.
• Eredivisie (Netherlands): PSV 7 - 0 Willem II. The model rated a win for PSV at 92%.
• National Division (Luxembourg): Niedercorn 3 - 0 Hesperange. The model rated a win for Niedercorn at 91%.
• Primeira Liga (Portugal): FC Porto 4 - 0 Estoril. The model rated a win for FC Porto at 91%.
• Serie A (Italy): Udinese 2 - 5 AS Roma. The model rated a win for AS Roma at 89%.
• 1. Liga (Latvia): Skanste 1 - 2 Metta was our third most likely exact score, at 8.2%.
• Premier League (Russia): Rubin Kazan 1 - 0 Fakel Voronezh was our second most likely exact score, at 12.6%.
• Meistriliiga (Estonia): Tammeka 2 - 1 Harju JK Laagri was our third most likely exact score, at 9.5%.
• Toppserien - Regular season (Norway): Molde W 3 - 1 Bodo/Glimt W was our third most likely exact score, at 8.1%.
• Süper Lig (Turkey): Kocaelispor 0 - 0 Rizespor was our second most likely exact score, at 15.3%.
• Ligat Ha'al (Israel): Beitar Jerusalem 1 - 1 Kiryat Shmona was our third most likely exact score, at 9.8%.
• 1st League - RS (Bosnia and Herzegovina): Slavija 2 - 0 Nevesinje was our second most likely exact score, at 17.1%.
• Serie A (Italy): Bologna 2 - 1 Monza was our second most likely exact score, at 9%.
• Super Liga (Moldova): Sheriff Tiraspol 1 - 1 Zimbru Chisinau was our second most likely exact score, at 13.3%.
• First League (Bulgaria): Dunav Ruse 0 - 1 Levski Sofia was our second most likely exact score, at 14.3%.
• Premier League (Russia): Dynamo Moscow 2 - 0 Akhmat Grozny was our second most likely exact score, at 17.1%.
• Bundesliga (Germany): Augsburg 1 - 2 Freiburg was our third most likely exact score, at 7.8%.
• Premier League (England): Brentford 2 - 0 Nottingham was our most likely exact score, at 12.6%.
• Ligat Ha'al (Israel): Sakhnin 1 - 1 Ironi Tiberias was our third most likely exact score, at 11.8%.
• Bundesliga (Austria): Altach 1 - 1 Ried was our most likely exact score, at 10.1%.
• 1st League - RS (Bosnia and Herzegovina): Prijedor 1 - 0 Majevica was our second most likely exact score, at 13.4%.
• NB I (Hungary): Zalaegerszegi 3 - 0 MTK Budapest was our third most likely exact score, at 6.8%.
• Super League (Switzerland): Grasshoppers 2 - 2 Vaduz was our third most likely exact score, at 7.1%.
• National Division (Luxembourg): Mondorf 2 - 1 Hostert was our most likely exact score, at 9%.
• National Division (Luxembourg): Niedercorn 3 - 0 Hesperange was our second most likely exact score, at 19.1%.
• 1. Division (Cyprus): Omonia 2 - 0 AEL Limassol was our most likely exact score, at 12%.
• First League (Bulgaria): CSKA Sofia 0 - 0 Slavia Sofia was our second most likely exact score, at 18.2%.
• Ligat Ha'al (Israel): Netanya 1 - 1 Hapoel Jerusalem was our most likely exact score, at 12.9%.
• Premier League (England): Tottenham 2 - 0 Crystal Palace was our third most likely exact score, at 10.7%.
• Eredivisie (Netherlands): Heerenveen 1 - 0 Nijmegen was our second most likely exact score, at 11.2%.
• Bundesliga (Austria): LASK 2 - 1 Tirol was our second most likely exact score, at 9.7%.
• Super League (Switzerland): Luzern 1 - 1 Sion was our third most likely exact score, at 6.1%.

Goals

There were 403 goals in 127 matches, 3.2 per game.

Over 2.5 goals landed in 78 matches (61%), against an average model probability of 53%.

Both teams scored in 73 (57%), against an average model probability of 48%.

The highest-scoring game was JFK Ventspils 8 - 0 Rezekne in the 1. Liga (Latvia); the model had over 2.5 goals there at 11%.

Suggested bets

192 of the 280 suggested bets we published for these matches landed (69%). They include results, double chances, goal lines and combinations of the two, so the rate mixes very different prices; it is a record, not a profit figure.

By competition

All results

Pre-match probabilities for a home win, draw and away win, with the outcome the model rated most likely in bold.

About these reviews

Every probability above is the prediction our match pages showed before kick-off; predictions stay up after the final whistle, hits and misses alike. Results are settled on the score after 90 minutes. Only matches with our own model's predictions are included; estimates from outside providers are left out. To read the numbers, see how to judge football predictions and how our predictions work.

18+. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice. Please read our responsible gambling page.