Results vs predictions, 28 Oct 2026: favourites won 11 of 28
How our pre-match predictions held up on Wednesday, 28 October 2026: 11 of 28 favourites won, with goals, both teams to score and suggested bets settled against the final scores. Biggest surprise: AC Milan 2 - 4 Bologna, rated at 12%.
By Adam from Poland · · Compiled automatically from our published predictions and the final scores
The day in numbers
28 matches with our own pre-match predictions finished on Wednesday, 28 October 2026, across 10 competitions in 10 countries.
The outcome our model rated most likely came in 11 times out of 28 (39%). On average it gave those picks 55%, so they landed less often than those probabilities implied.
Biggest surprises
3 results came in at under 20% by our numbers. Outcomes rated that low should still happen roughly one time in five or fewer, so a handful on a busy day is expected.
- Serie A (Italy): AC Milan 2 - 4 Bologna. The model rated a win for Bologna at 12% and had a win for AC Milan as its favourite at 61%.
- Premiership (Scotland): Celtic 2 - 2 Dundee Utd. The model rated a draw at 14% and had a win for Celtic as its favourite at 80%.
- Serie A (Italy): Genoa 2 - 0 Juventus. The model rated a win for Genoa at 14% and had a win for Juventus as its favourite at 59%.
Calls that landed
7 favourites rated at 60% or more won, and 8 final scores were among the three exact scores we listed.
- Serie A (Italy): Venezia 0 - 2 Inter. The model rated a win for Inter at 89%.
- 1. liga (Slovakia): Trencin 0 - 2 Slovan Bratislava. The model rated a win for Slovan Bratislava at 84%.
- 1. liga (Slovakia): Kosice 0 - 1 Dun. Streda. The model rated a win for Dun. Streda at 78%.
- Super Liga (Serbia): Radnicki Nis 2 - 3 Partizan. The model rated a win for Partizan at 71%.
- Premiership (Scotland): Dundee FC 3 - 1 Kilmarnock. The model rated a win for Dundee FC at 69%.
- First League (Montenegro): Arsenal Tivat 0 - 0 Bokelj was our most likely exact score, at 31.8%.
- Meistriliiga (Estonia): Parnu JK Vaprus 1 - 1 Kuressaare was our most likely exact score, at 12.4%.
- Veikkausliiga - Championship Group (Finland): AC Oulu 0 - 0 VPS was our second most likely exact score, at 15.2%.
- 1. liga (Slovakia): Trencin 0 - 2 Slovan Bratislava was our most likely exact score, at 14.9%.
- Serie A (Italy): Venezia 0 - 2 Inter was our second most likely exact score, at 10.6%.
- 1. SNL (Slovenia): O. Ljubljana 1 - 1 Celje was our second most likely exact score, at 13.9%.
- Premiership (Scotland): Aberdeen 0 - 1 Falkirk was our third most likely exact score, at 15%.
- Premiership (Scotland): St. Mirren 1 - 1 Hibernian was our most likely exact score, at 12.8%.
Goals
There were 66 goals in 28 matches, 2.4 per game.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 matches (39%), against an average model probability of 50%.
Both teams scored in 13 (46%), against an average model probability of 48%.
The highest-scoring game was AC Milan 2 - 4 Bologna in the Serie A (Italy); the model had over 2.5 goals there at 33%.
Suggested bets
42 of the 61 suggested bets we published for these matches landed (69%). They include results, double chances, goal lines and combinations of the two, so the rate mixes very different prices; it is a record, not a profit figure.
By competition
| Competition | Matches | Favourites won | Goals per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premiership (Scotland) | 6 | 1 of 6 | 3.2 |
| Serie A (Italy) | 5 | 1 of 5 | 3.0 |
| Allsvenskan (Sweden) | 4 | 2 of 4 | 2.0 |
| 1. liga (Slovakia) | 2 | 2 of 2 | 1.5 |
| 1. SNL (Slovenia) | 2 | 0 of 2 | 1.0 |
| First League (Montenegro) | 2 | 2 of 2 | 0.5 |
| Meistriliiga (Estonia) | 2 | 1 of 2 | 2.0 |
| Premier League (Belarus) | 2 | 1 of 2 | 3.0 |
| Super Liga (Serbia) | 2 | 1 of 2 | 4.0 |
All results
Pre-match probabilities for a home win, draw and away win, with the outcome the model rated most likely in bold.
| Match | Score | Home / Draw / Away | Favourite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belshina vs Din. Minsk Premier League (Belarus) | 2 - 3 | 16% / 24% / 60% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| Isloch vs ML Vitebsk Premier League (Belarus) | 1 - 0 | 30% / 25% / 45% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Arsenal Tivat vs Bokelj First League (Montenegro) | 0 - 0 | 26% / 44% / 30% | Draw ✓ (landed) |
| Radnicki 1923 vs Zeleznicar Pancevo Super Liga (Serbia) | 1 - 2 | 43% / 29% / 28% | Home ✗ (missed) |
| Parnu JK Vaprus vs Kuressaare Meistriliiga (Estonia) | 1 - 1 | 49% / 26% / 25% | Home ✗ (missed) |
| Radnicki Nis vs Partizan Super Liga (Serbia) | 2 - 3 | 13% / 16% / 71% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| Nafta vs Aluminij 1. SNL (Slovenia) | 0 - 0 | 25% / 20% / 55% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Petrovac vs Mladost DG First League (Montenegro) | 1 - 0 | 62% / 22% / 16% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| AC Oulu vs VPS Veikkausliiga - Championship Group (Finland) | 0 - 0 | 41% / 33% / 26% | Home ✗ (missed) |
| Paide vs Kalju Meistriliiga (Estonia) | 0 - 2 | 26% / 34% / 40% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| Trencin vs Slovan Bratislava 1. liga (Slovakia) | 0 - 2 | 4% / 12% / 84% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| Kosice vs Dun. Streda 1. liga (Slovakia) | 0 - 1 | 9% / 13% / 78% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| AC Milan vs Bologna Serie A (Italy) | 2 - 4 | 61% / 27% / 12% | Home ✗ (missed) |
| Parma vs Udinese Serie A (Italy) | 0 - 0 | 24% / 25% / 51% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Venezia vs Inter Serie A (Italy) | 0 - 2 | 3% / 8% / 89% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| Brommapojkarna vs Hacken Allsvenskan (Sweden) | 0 - 0 | 16% / 25% / 59% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Degerfors vs Vasteras SK Allsvenskan (Sweden) | 0 - 3 | 29% / 27% / 44% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| Goteborg vs Djurgarden Allsvenskan (Sweden) | 1 - 1 | 13% / 29% / 58% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Halmstad vs Malmo FF Allsvenskan (Sweden) | 0 - 3 | 14% / 31% / 55% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| O. Ljubljana vs Celje 1. SNL (Slovenia) | 1 - 1 | 43% / 31% / 26% | Home ✗ (missed) |
| Aberdeen vs Falkirk Premiership (Scotland) | 0 - 1 | 33% / 37% / 30% | Draw ✗ (missed) |
| Celtic vs Dundee Utd Premiership (Scotland) | 2 - 2 | 80% / 14% / 6% | Home ✗ (missed) |
| Dundee FC vs Kilmarnock Premiership (Scotland) | 3 - 1 | 69% / 19% / 12% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| St Johnstone vs Motherwell Premiership (Scotland) | 2 - 2 | 47% / 23% / 30% | Home ✗ (missed) |
| St. Mirren vs Hibernian Premiership (Scotland) | 1 - 1 | 33% / 27% / 40% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Genoa vs Juventus Serie A (Italy) | 2 - 0 | 14% / 27% / 59% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Monza vs Napoli Serie A (Italy) | 1 - 4 | 39% / 23% / 38% | Home ✗ (missed) |
| Hearts vs Rangers Premiership (Scotland) | 2 - 2 | 45% / 28% / 27% | Home ✗ (missed) |
About these reviews
Every probability above is the prediction our match pages showed before kick-off; predictions stay up after the final whistle, hits and misses alike. Results are settled on the score after 90 minutes. Only matches with our own model's predictions are included; estimates from outside providers are left out. To read the numbers, see how to judge football predictions and how our predictions work.
18+. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice. Please read our responsible gambling page.