Results vs predictions, 3 Nov 2026: favourites won 10 of 12
How our pre-match predictions held up on Tuesday, 3 November 2026: 10 of 12 favourites won, with goals, both teams to score and suggested bets settled against the final scores. Biggest surprise: Manchester Utd 3 - 2 AS Roma, rated at 17%.
By Adam from Poland · · Compiled automatically from our published predictions and the final scores
The day in numbers
12 matches with our own pre-match predictions finished on Tuesday, 3 November 2026, across 3 competitions in 3 countries.
The outcome our model rated most likely came in 10 times out of 12 (83%). On average it gave those picks 53%, so they landed more often than those probabilities implied. On a sample this small a few results either way move the rate a lot, so read it as one day, not a trend.
Biggest surprises
2 results came in at under 20% by our numbers. Outcomes rated that low should still happen roughly one time in five or fewer, so a handful on a busy day is expected.
- UEFA Champions League - League Phase (Europe): Manchester Utd 3 - 2 AS Roma. The model rated a win for Manchester Utd at 17% and had a win for AS Roma as its favourite at 60%.
- UEFA Champions League - League Phase (Europe): Shakhtar Donetsk 0 - 1 Sporting CP. The model rated a win for Sporting CP at 18% and had a win for Shakhtar Donetsk as its favourite at 59%.
Calls that landed
2 favourites rated at 60% or more won, and 4 final scores were among the three exact scores we listed.
- UEFA Champions League - League Phase (Europe): Barcelona 3 - 0 Aston Villa. The model rated a win for Barcelona at 83%.
- Allsvenskan (Sweden): Sirius 2 - 0 Halmstad. The model rated a win for Sirius at 80%.
- First League (Montenegro): Jezero 1 - 0 Decic was our third most likely exact score, at 13.3%.
- Allsvenskan (Sweden): Sirius 2 - 0 Halmstad was our most likely exact score, at 11%.
- UEFA Champions League - League Phase (Europe): Barcelona 3 - 0 Aston Villa was our most likely exact score, at 8.7%.
- UEFA Champions League - League Phase (Europe): Bodo/Glimt 0 - 0 Lille was our most likely exact score, at 19.6%.
Goals
There were 33 goals in 12 matches, 2.8 per game.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 matches (50%), against an average model probability of 53%.
Both teams scored in 2 (17%), against an average model probability of 52%.
The highest-scoring game was Villarreal 0 - 6 PSG in the UEFA Champions League - League Phase (Europe); the model had over 2.5 goals there at 50%.
Suggested bets
22 of the 26 suggested bets we published for these matches landed (85%). They include results, double chances, goal lines and combinations of the two, so the rate mixes very different prices; it is a record, not a profit figure.
By competition
| Competition | Matches | Favourites won | Goals per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Champions League - League Phase (Europe) | 9 | 7 of 9 | 2.9 |
| First League (Montenegro) | 2 | 2 of 2 | 2.5 |
All results
Pre-match probabilities for a home win, draw and away win, with the outcome the model rated most likely in bold.
| Match | Score | Home / Draw / Away | Favourite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Otrant vs Arsenal Tivat First League (Montenegro) | 3 - 1 | 49% / 25% / 26% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| Jezero vs Decic First League (Montenegro) | 1 - 0 | 37% / 32% / 31% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| Galatasaray vs Stuttgart UEFA Champions League - League Phase (Europe) | 2 - 0 | 49% / 25% / 26% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP UEFA Champions League - League Phase (Europe) | 0 - 1 | 59% / 23% / 18% | Home ✗ (missed) |
| Sirius vs Halmstad Allsvenskan (Sweden) | 2 - 0 | 80% / 13% / 7% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| Atl. Madrid vs Bayern Munich UEFA Champions League - League Phase (Europe) | 0 - 2 | 27% / 29% / 44% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| Barcelona vs Aston Villa UEFA Champions League - League Phase (Europe) | 3 - 0 | 83% / 11% / 6% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| Bodo/Glimt vs Lille UEFA Champions League - League Phase (Europe) | 0 - 0 | 32% / 36% / 32% | Draw ✓ (landed) |
| Feyenoord vs Inter UEFA Champions League - League Phase (Europe) | 0 - 3 | 31% / 25% / 44% | Away ✓ (landed) |
| LASK vs Slovan Bratislava UEFA Champions League - League Phase (Europe) | 4 - 0 | 42% / 27% / 31% | Home ✓ (landed) |
| Manchester Utd vs AS Roma UEFA Champions League - League Phase (Europe) | 3 - 2 | 17% / 23% / 60% | Away ✗ (missed) |
| Villarreal vs PSG UEFA Champions League - League Phase (Europe) | 0 - 6 | 25% / 27% / 48% | Away ✓ (landed) |
About these reviews
Every probability above is the prediction our match pages showed before kick-off; predictions stay up after the final whistle, hits and misses alike. Results are settled on the score after 90 minutes. Only matches with our own model's predictions are included; estimates from outside providers are left out. To read the numbers, see how to judge football predictions and how our predictions work.
18+. Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice. Please read our responsible gambling page.